Surreal . . .

It's hard to believe the flood danger here -- the weather has been so gorgeous for the past month -- barely any rain whatsoever.  Absolutely lovely.  But all around us, folks are preparing for record floods.  Here's a video including preparations at Vidalia up near Nachez  (click on the "River Watch 6 PM May 6" video)  where millions of dollars in new buildings stand, including River Park Hospital and River Park Medical Center which have already been evacuated because they stand between the river and the levee.  The actual levees there are 68 feet high, and river levels are expected to crest below that level at around 64 feet, but that  will still inundate the bottom floors of the River Center, the hospital and all those structures located next to the river behind the levees.  That video also includes reports from Morganza and Baton Rouge.  (For a more personal report from Morganza, click on "River Watch: Noon May 6.")

Here's a map released at 10 PM last night showing the estimated flood levels on the west side of the Mississippi if the Morganza Spillway has to be opened.  All that yellow indicates levels of 15 to 20 feet! 

There will probably be no choice BUT to open Morganza -- they expect that the gates will be overtopped anyway.  If they don't open them they may be destroyed creating an even worse situation.

This May 6 video (click on "Raw Video - Jindal News Conference") is the latest news conference concerning the anticipated flooding.

As for the opening of the Morganza Spillway which will affect the land on the west side of the Mississippi, and the fate of Baton Rouge and the area south of the city where we live here on the east side of the River, here's the latest info from the Baton Rouge Advocate (emphasis added by me):

NEWS

By WILL SENTELL, Advocate Capital News Bureau,
Published May 7, 2011

Officials: EBR levee breaches not expected

While not expected, any levee breaches because of rising water on the Mississippi River could affect an area west of Highland Road to the river, officials said.

Minor over-toppings of the levee should not pose any risks if they do not lead to breaches, leaders of the East Baton Rouge Parish Department of Public Works said Friday.

However, if that happens “areas generally west of Highland Road to the Mississippi River would be potentially impacted,” they said.

The comments came from Jim Ferguson, chief design engineer for the Department of Public Works, and Bryan Harmon, deputy director of DPW. City-parish officials are responsible for more than two miles of levees from downtown to just north of LSU.

The information was relayed to a reporter by John Carpenter, chief administrative officer for Mayor-President Kip Holden. Details on any neighborhoods that could be affected by levee breaches were unavailable.

The questions stem from concerns in Baton Rouge and elsewhere about the impact of rising waters on the Mississippi River, which is expected to exceed record levels set in 1927.

The river is expected to crest at 47.5 feet on May 23. The current record of 47.28 feet was set in May 1927.

Flood stage, the level of water that would spill over the banks without levee protection, is 35 feet in Baton Rouge. Levees through Baton Rouge are generally between 47 feet and 51 feet.

On Friday, more than half a dozen parish pickup trucks were lined up on River Road near Main Street, where workers were hauling sand bags to add more protection against rising water.

In addition, an area between North Boulevard and Oklahoma Street has gotten attention in recent days because it is near the lowest point on the levee.

Yet parish, state and other officials repeatedly said that, in general, Baton Rouge is not considered overly vulnerable unless there are big changes in the next two and a half weeks.

“Obviously the main part of Baton Rouge does not appear to have any significant challenges,” said Robert Barham, secretary for the state Department of Wildlife and Fisheries and a regular participant in the daily briefings on plans to prevent river-related problems.

Officials at plants along the river have taken notice.

ExxonMobil Baton Rouge has a flood preparedness plan in place and some sand bags have been put out, said Stephanie Cargile, public and government affairs manager for the firm.

The group includes environmental and emergency response officials who are coordinating with state and local officials, Cargile said.

Officials at Placid Refining Co. in Port Allen, which services independent gasoline stations, have adjusted barge traffic because of river levels, said Rafael Bermudez, a spokesman for the refinery.

Just where any water would go if Baton Rouge experienced any levee overtoppings or breeches is one of many questions.

“Overtopping would generally be restricted to the Corporation Canal and Bayou Fountain watersheds,” Ferguson and Harmon said in the email sent by Carpenter.

“A major breech would impact the same areas,” the reply says. “However, it would also impact lower Wards Creek, Bayou Manchac and the areas south of EBR.”  [**Bayou Manchac is just down the road from our house.  Last time it flooded, they had the prisoners from a nearby prison down there filling sand bags, but this is nowhere near as minor as that one was, so I'm sure Manchac WILL flood big time if the levee breeches.]

Barham said his agency is readying its animal response teams — veterinarians and others — in case the Morganza Spillway is open.

That would trim the amount of water traveling through Baton Rouge. But it would also dump lots of water into the Atchafalaya River, forcing deer and other animals to relocate.

“Obviously the high profile ones are the bears in the Atchafalaya,” Barham said.

So -- they do not expect that we will have any flooding here on the East side of the river.  But on the other hand, they follow those statements with the thought that THIS flood may be different from anything in the past and they can't really SAY what's going to happen!  Not exactly reassuring.

Well, at least we have a 2-story house.  I guess if worse comes to worst, we can haul everything upstairs, load up all the dogs and cats and horses and head out.  Anyone want visitors???